2012 Patriots Mock Draft

Round 1, Pick 27

Projected Selection: Patriots trade pick to CAR who select Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

The Panthers trade up to get ahead of the Packers to select Gilmore, while the Patriots receive the 40^th overall pick and Carolina’s 2013 first-round pick.

Round 1, Pick 31

Projected Selection: Andre Branch, OLB/DE, Clemson

The Patriots add the All-ACC pass rusher from Clemson. He should be able to step right in and play a major role on the defense immediately.

Round 2, Pick 9, 40 Overall (From Projected trade with CAR)

Projected Selection: Harrison Smith, S, Notre Dame

After trading out of the 27^th pick with Mark Barron already off the board, the Patriots have the 2^nd best safety in the draft fall right into their lap at pick 40.  Smith should have no trouble receiving immediately playing time alongside Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory.

Round 2, Pick 16, 48 Overall

Projected Selection: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

The Patriots get an extremely talented WR to groom behind their current collection of veterans at the position. Jeffery would likely have to wait until the 2013 season to emerge with players like Lloyd, Branch, and Ochocinco all ahead of him.

Round 2, Pick 31, 62 Overall

Projected Selection: Patriots trade pick to CLE who select Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian State

The Browns badly in need of receivers trade up for Quick, while the Patriots receive the Browns 2013 second-round pick, as well as picks 160 and 211

Round 3, Pick 31, 93 Overall

Projected Selection: Jeff Allen, T, Illinois

The Patriots add much needed depth at tackle with the selection of Allen, a four-year starter for the Illini.

Round 4, Pick 31, 126 Overall

Projected Selection: Marcus Forston, DT, Miami

The Patriots add Forston who would likely play defensive end if the Patriots employ their 3-4 defense again in 2012. He is a player who will likely fall farther than he should due to his knee injury last season.

Round 5, Pick 25, 160 Overall (From Projected trade with CLE)

Projected Selection: Quinton Richardson, S, Washington

The Patriots add a fast safety (ran a 4.3 forty) in Richardson, who if nothing else can push players like Sergio Brown and Ross Ventrone for a role on special teams.

Round 5- Traded in 2011 to CIN for WR Chad Ochocinco

Round 6- Traded in 2010 to PHI for LB Tracy White

Round 7, Pick 4, 211 Overall (From Projected trade with CLE)

Projected Selection: Darron Thomas, QB, Oregon

The Patriots take a chance on Thomas, who surprisingly left Oregon early. With Hoyer and Mallett not going anywhere, he will have to either carve out a role doing something other than quarterbacking, or hope to make the team via the practice squad.

Round 7- Traded in 2010 to KC for S Jarrad Page

Patriots' Draft Needs

1. Outside Linebacker/Defensive End         

Every year the Patriots go into the draft with everyone clamoring for them to take a pass rusher and this year should be no different. The Patriots found some quick solutions to the problem last season with afterthought free agents Mark Anderson and Andre Carter. However, Anderson has since signed with the Bills, and Carter is a free agent coming off a torn quad who will be 33 before the season. The Patriots need to find an edge presence that is more than a one-year player.

2. Safety

Patrick Chung and Steve Gregory are a solid set of safeties but neither are complete players. Chung is a player who can come up and make plays in the box, but coverage is not his specialty. Gregory is a versatile player who has better coverage ability and can play back deep, but he is by no means a star. The Patriots needs to draft another safety that can come in and be an all around player, something the team has been missing since Rodney Harrison’s early days with the team.

3. Offensive Tackle

All indications are that left tackle Matt Light is hanging up his cleats after 12 seasons in the league. Luckily the team did draft Nate Solder to take that role in last year’s draft. Assuming Solder is penciled in as the starter at left tackle that still leaves a question mark at right tackle. If Sebastian Vollmer is able to remain healthy the job is obviously his, but with his history of back problems and a foot injury that bothered him last year, his status is up in the air. That leaves Marcus Cannon as the only other option at tackle unless recently signed Robert Gallery moves back there from guard, but he has struggled at tackle in the past. The team should add a rookie at the position with one of their mid-round picks.

4. Wide Receiver

People probably assume the Patriots will not draft a receiver after the slew of free agent signing at the position, but they really need to look at the players they have signed. Donte’ Stallworth, Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch are all in their 30’s. The Patriots still lack a young receiver to develop at the position long-term unless they feel Tiquan Underwood or Britt Davis is that player, but there is no reason to believe the team feels that way.

I will soon post my 2012 Patriots Mock Draft with all of the Patriots’ picks from 27-126.

Branch Re-Signs

            The New England Patriots re-signed wide receiver Deion Branch to a one-year contract this afternoon, according to ESPN’s Adam Schefter. Branch, 32, had expressed his desire to return and as one of Tom Brady’s favorite targets, the interest was mutual. His return adds to an already deep receiving corps and creates even more interest in what should be one of the most interesting positional battles come training camp.

Projected WR Depth Chart:

Wes Welker

Brandon Lloyd

Deion Branch

Chad Ochocinco

Donte’ Stallworth

Julian Edelman

Anthony Gonzalez

Tiquan Underwood

Britt Davis

Matt Slater

            As previously stated, Brady’s relationship and comfort level with Branch will make him an extremely tough cut come September. In my opinion the team still will add some youth to the position come draft time, so a handful of these players are going to be on the outside looking in. A team is only going to carry so many 30-something year old receivers, so I would really look for Stallworth, Ochocinco, or less likely, Branch, to be released at some point before the season. Britt Davis, Tiquan Underwood, and Anthony Gonzalez likely face the longest odds to stick with the team come cuts.  The only players I would label locks to make the roster are Wes Welker and Brandon Lloyd.

The NFL News Keeps Coming

            Roger Goodell and the NFL dropped the hammer on the New Orleans Saints this afternoon in the wake of their bounty scandal. Head Coach Sean Payton was suspended for the entire 2012 season, while former Defensive Coordinator Gregg Williams (now of the Rams) was suspended indefinitely. General Manager Mickey Loomis received an eight-game suspension and the team was docked two second-round picks. This punishment far outweighs the punishment levied on the New England Patriots for their recording of defensive signals back in the 2007 season. The Patriots and Bill Belichick were simply fined and stripped of one first-round pick. No suspensions were ever issued.           

The NFL is clearly making an example of the Saints. They may have come down a little harsher than most would have guessed, however this will almost surely eliminate bounties completely from the league. Anyone willing to risk this type of punishment for their team after this punishment obviously does not have the best interests of the team on their mind.

The craziness did not stop there today as Tim Tebow was shipped to the New York Jets for 4^th and 6^th round draft picks. I do not quite understand the Jets willingness to give up two draft picks for a player who at most will run a few plays out of the wildcat offense for them. Say what you want about Mark Sanchez, but he is an NFL-caliber passer. Tim Tebow is not. After a terrible and dysfunctional ending to the 2011 season, the Jets should have just quietly gone about their business this offseason. Instead they chose to acquire a player who at first glance seems to be a terrible fit in that locker room.

On the Patriots front there is also news this afternoon. Top-pass rusher from the 2011 Patriots, Mark Anderson is headed to the Buffalo Bills. The Bills inked Anderson to a four-year deal, adding him to an already formidable defensive line that includes Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus, and Kyle Williams. The Bills are making a strong push to be in the conversation in the AFC East. The Patriots were interested in retaining Anderson’s services but likely not at four years and whatever financial figures Buffalo ends up giving him.

There are also reports coming out that Benjarvus Green-Ellis could soon be joining the Cincinnati Bengals. That would be a good move for them I believe as long as it is at the right price. They have a back with a little flash in Bernard Scott, and “Law Firm” will be a good solid runner to pair him with. Green-Ellis is a player who the Patriots value, but with the drafting of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen a year ago, they are seemingly looking for a little more explosiveness out of that position.

The Patriots also reportedly signed cornerback Will Allen, formerly of the Dolphins and Giants, to a one-year deal. At 33 years old and having been a training camp cut of the Dolphins last season, I believe this is the classic case of a “camp body.” Allen will have a difficult time cracking the 53-man roster on a team that already has Devin McCourty, Kyle Arrington, Ras-I Dowling, Sterling Moore, and likely a mid-to-upper round draft pick at corner.

Explosive First Week of Free Agency for Patriots

         The Patriots were extremely active in the first week of free agency, especially compared to their past standards. They have made an effort to retain some of their core special teamers and center Dan Connolly, but they also have signed a usually high number of players from the outside.

WR- Brandon Lloyd (STL), Donte' Stallworth (WAS), Anthony Gonzalez (IND), Matt Slater (NE)

The Patriots added two receivers on the outside which the Patriots were in desperate need of in Lloyd and Stallworth. Lloyd is easily their most important acquisition of the offseason thus far after his previous success under Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels in both Denver and St. Louis. They also brought in Gonzalez who was a threat on the outside occasionally as well as in the slot in his first few season with the Colts. However, Gonzalez has been unable to stay on the field the past few seasons, which is why he was available for next to nothing. He is the perfect example of low-risk, high-reward. Special teams captain Matt Slater was also re-signed. These moves could potentially lead to the release of Chad Ochocinco, if nothing else, Chad will need to have a good training camp to be a part of the offense.

TE- Daniel Fells (DEN)

Fells is a players who the Patriots have looked at in the past and is a solid signing as the third tight end. He is a decent blocker and receiver, but is not dominant at either. The team will be less troubled in the event of a Gronkowski or Hernandez injury and will be able to use an extra offensive lineman as a tight end less of the time.

OL- Dan Connolly (NE), Robert Gallery (SEA)

Connolly was a necessary re-signing as former starting center Dan Koppen will likely leave via free agency and Connolly’s versatility along the offensive line is something Bill Belichick loves. Gallery, previously the 2nd overall pick in the 2004 NFL Draft, is also a player the Patriots have had previous interest in and will likely provide depth at guard unless current right guard Brian Waters retires, in which case Gallery would be the likely starter.

DL- Jonathan Fanene (CIN) Trevor Scott (OAK)

Fanene will be able to line up in a variety of spots along the defensive line especially if the Patriots once again deploy both the 4-3 and 3-4 defense. He has a chance to start, but will likely be used mostly as an interior rusher on passing downs. He was able to secure 6 and 1/2 sacks in that role in limited playing time for the Bengals last season. Scott also will add some pass rush ability to the Patriot defense. He will be more of an edge player similar to the way Mark Anderson was employed a season ago. Scott has had some success early in his career and is the defense’s version of Anthony Gonzalez. He was signed for a cheap one-year deal and the Patriots are risking next to nothing on him. If the team brings back Anderson and/or Andre Carter, Scott may have a hard time seeing the field.

LB- Tracy White (NE), Niko Koutouvides (NE)

The Patriots retained two core special teamers in White and Koutouvides, both of who also played reserve roles on defense a year ago. However, the Patriots would likely prefer to keep them exclusively on special teams.

DB- Steve Gregory (SD), Marquice Cole (NYJ)

Gregory is another “Belichick-type” player who is has some versatility. First and foremost he is a free safety, which the Patriots obviously needed to sign to keep players like Matt Slater and Sergio Brown out of the secondary. He also has the ability to line up as a nickel-corner. Even if he is not a full-time starter, he should still see plenty of snaps. Cole will likely have to earn himself a roster spot with his special teams ability. At best he would seem to be the team's 5th corner.

Manning Released

            Peyton Manning was released Wednesday after 14 years with the Indianapolis Colts. After months of banter back and forth through the media between Jim Irsay and Manning, they handled Manning's goodbye press conference about as well as one could expect. It was clearly an emotional time for both of them and both said all the right things.

           

            However, it is hard to believe this decision had nothing to do with money like both Irsay and Manning inferred. Irsay pointed out on more than one occasion that the Colts are rebuilding after last season’s disaster, but one could easily argue though that had #18 been in the huddle, they would have been the same old Colts, fighting for a right to play in the Super Bowl in their own building. To me, everything points to one thing, it was about the money.

If Peyton Manning were not due a 28 million dollar bonus today, he would still be around. He could have groomed expected number one overall pick Andrew Luck for two to three years, and coach Jim Caldwell and President Bill Polian could have kept their jobs. However, with Manning’s contract and bonus being the way it was, I believe the Colts made the right move. With Manning leaving, why not just start a completely new era.

New England Patriots WR Outlook

            The New England Patriots find themselves in an odd place at the wide receiver position as they head towards free agency and the draft. The only player who unquestionably will be with the team in their 2012 campaign is also the only one who spent a decent amount of time playing defense when they ended the 2011 season, Julian Edelman. The status of his fellow receivers from last year’s squad; Wes Welker, Deion Branch, and Chad Ochocinco, remains up in the air.

            Conventional wisdom is that the Patriots will use the franchise tag on free agent Wes Welker before the March 5^th deadline. However, look for a longer term deal to be struck with Welker before the start of the season, similar to what the team did with Vince Wilfork two years ago.  Welker should receive a comfortable contract that pays him as a top-10 receiver for no more than three years. Welker will likely take a light hometown discount, but keep in mind he will be 31 before the season and has still yet to ever really cash in.

            Fellow free agent receiver, Deion Branch undoubtedly will take whatever contract the Patriots put in front of him, as he has made clear his intentions to retire a Patriot. Whether or not Bill Belichick decides to bring back Branch will be an interesting decision. At this stage in his career, Branch would be best suited to be at best a team’s fourth option at wide receiver.  Look for Branch to re-sign and make the team as their fourth or fifth receiver.

            The most interesting of the names above has to be Chad Ochocinco. The former All-Pro fell off the map in his first season in New England after ten successful campaigns with the Cincinnati Bengals. The Patriots have reportedly already asked Ochocinco to restructure his contract. Assuming he obliges, he will have a short leash in training camp. If he shows up in camp and clearly is still not on the same page with Tom Brady, the team will have no choice but to go in another direction.

            The bottom-line is that even if all three receivers return, the Patriots need to restock their receiving core. There are plenty of big names expected to hit the market such as Vincent Jackson, Marques Colston, and Reggie Wayne. The Patriots will likely look to fly a little under the radar and sign one of the second-tier receivers available. One player that would be a great fit would be Robert Meachem. The Patriots desperately seek a player who can stretch the field and make a big play, two of Meachem’s specialties. Coming out of another offense that spread the ball around in New Orleans, Meachem is not getting as much talk as a lot of other names out there, but he could make a team look very smart.

            One cannot talk the Patriots and wide receivers without mentioning the name Brandon Lloyd. The connection is obvious. Lloyd has had two of his best seasons, on two separate teams, with new Patriots Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels. The Patriots will surely discuss Lloyd, but a deal needs to be done at the right price. In the end he may command a little more money than the Patriots would like, which was reportedly the case when they tried acquiring him before the 2011 trade deadline.

            My complete shot out of left field: When the Patriots line up on opening day, I look for Robert Meachem and Chad Johnson to be split out wide, with Wes Welker holding down his usual spot in the slot. Deion Branch, Julian Edelman, and South Carolina’s Alshon Jeffery will be in reserve roles.